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سلام رئیسی به دلار ۳۶ هزار تومانی

قرار گرفتن قیمت دلار در مرز ۳۶ هزار تومان در ۱۴ آبان ماه، نگرانی‌ها بابت قرار گرفتن روی موج تورمی را تقویت کرد.
اشتراک گذاری
۱۵ آبان ۱۴۰۱
159 بازدید
نویسنده : مجتبی رستمی
کد مطلب : 644

به گزارش پایگاه خبری ملت اصیل، قرار گرفتن قیمت دلار در مرز ۳۶ هزار تومان در ۱۴ آبان ماه، نگرانی‌ها بابت قرار گرفتن روی موج تورمی را تقویت کرد. چنانکه هنوز آثار و تبعات گرانی قیمت دلار را بعد از لغو برجام در سال ۹۷ به یاد داریم. در پی گرانی‌ها از آن زمان تاکنون قیمت کالا‌ها چندین برابر شد و هنوز هم بار آن بر گرده دهک‌های درآمدی پایین جامعه سنگینی می‌کند.

با صعود قیمت دلار به کانال ۳۶ هزار تومان در این روز‌ها که در اوج ناآرامی‌ها هستیم و زیان‌های ناشی از قطعی اینترنت کسب‌وکار‌ها را با مشکل مواجه کرده، بار دیگر انتظارات تورمی را بالا رفته و این سیگنال خطرناکی است در شرایطی که تورم مهر ماه به رقم ۶/ ۴۸ درصد رسیده است. اما افزایش قیمت دلار چه دلایلی داشته است؟

بررسی‌ها نشان می‌دهد که در روز‌های اخیر نسبت خروج دارایی‌ها از بازار سرمایه افزایش یافته و به اعتقاد کارشناسان این دارایی‌ها به بازار سکه و ارز روانه شده است. ایلنا در اوایل مهر ماه از خروج ۲۵ هزار میلیارد تومان نقدینگی در سال ۱۴۰۱ از بازار بورس خبر داده بود.سرمایه‌های سرگردان البته راه به بازار‌های دیگر باز می‌کنند و در شرایط وجود ناآرامی‌ها در کشور و کمرنگ شدن امید‌ها برای احیای برجام بازار سکه و دلار هرچه بیشتر تقاضا پیدا می‌کند. چراکه در این ایام گرایش برای حفظ ارزش پول در مردم افزایش می‌یابد. برخی تحلیلگران همین مسأله را یکی از عوامل گران شدن دلار بر شمرده‌اند. برخی کارشناسان نیز به شکل‌گیری انتظارات تورمی به علت افزایش نرخ تورم نقطه به نقطه کشور در مهر ماه اشاره کرده‌اند.
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دولت بازار ارز را کنترل می‌کند؟

ابراهیم رئیسی یکبار در انتخابات ۹۶ در جریان رقابت با حسن روحانی به طعنه گفته بود خدا رحم کرد ما رئیس جمهور نشدیم. در جریان مناظره‌های انتخابات ۱۴۰۰ هم گفته بود اقتصاددانان را به خط می‌کنم اما نتیجه تمام وعده‌ها این شد که بی‌تجربه‌ترین تیم اقتصادی به نهادهای مختلف پولی منصوب شدند که کوچکترین تجربه اجرایی نداشتند و قول کنترل بازارهای مالی این شد که قیمت دلار در سال ۱۴۰۱ عجیب‌ترین رکورد خود را زد و وارد کانال ۳۶ هزار تومان شد و یکی از بزرگترین ریزش‌های بورس نیز همزمان با آن رخ بدهد.

برنامه دولت برای کنترل بازار ارز تا این لحظه این بوده که رسانه‌ها از انتشار اخبار قیمت دلار منع شوند و فقط مجاز به انتشار قیمت «دلار نیمایی»، «دلار در بازار متشکل»، «دلار در صرافی ملی» اما کسی نتواند قیمت اصلی دلار در بازار آزاد را انتشار دهد! در حقیقت دولت در خیال و وهم خود گمان کرده با محدودیت رسانه‌ها، قیمت‌ها را کنترل می‌کند، در حالیکه در دنیای واقعی اتفاقات دیگری در جریان است.در حالیکه وضعیت معیشتی مردم به سخت‌ترین روزهای خود رسیده، ابراهیم رئیسی روز گذشته گفته پیشرفت‌های بسیاری به دست آمده که عموم مردم و حتی عده زیادی از نخبگان اطلاعات دقیق و کاملی از آن‌ها ندارند!

معنای این جمله مشخص نیست و معلوم نیست این چه پیشرفتی است که حتی نخبگان از آن اطلاع ندارند، اما آنچه معلوم است اینکه اراده‌ای برای کنترل بازارهای مالی و مدیریت آن وجود ندارد. این موضوع آنجا دردناک می‌شود که بدانیم شرایط اولیه برای کنترل بازار به ویژه از جهت ذخایر ارزی وجود دارد، اما کاری پیش برده نمی‌شود. چه اینکه علی صالح‌آبادی رئیس کل بانک مرکزی از وصول بیش از ۵۰۰ میلیون دلار وجوه جمهوری اسلامی ایران که بیش از ۵۰ سال پیش در کشور انگلیس غیرقابل وصول مانده بود، با همکاری بانک مرکزی عمان خبر داد؛ بنابراین بعید به نظر می‌رسد دولت حتی توان کنترل قیمت دلار را نداشته باشد. اگرچه جهش ۷۵۰ تومانی دلار در یک روز نیز یکی از اتفاقات نگران‌کننده بود.

در شرایطی که قیمت دلار رو به صعودی بود و این مسأله تا زیادی مربوط به افزایش حجم تقاضا در بازار بود، بانک مرکزی با صدور بخشنامه‌ای اعلام کرد «به منظور تسهیل فروش ارز به مردم و جلوگیری از اتلاف وقت متقاضیان خرید ارز و پیرو اطلاعیه‌های بازار متشکل معاملات ارزی، از روز شنبه مورخ ۱۴۰۱/۰۸/۱۴ صرافی‌های عضو بازار متشکل معاملات ارزی، باید متقاضیانی را که از طریق سامانه برخط بازار غیر متشکل معاملات ارزی به نشانی my. ice.ir معرفی شده‌اند، در اولویت فروش ارز قرار داده و متعهد به ارائه خدمت در زمان مقرر باشند.براین اساس، در صورت احراز صلاحیت برای خرید ارز براساس مقررات بانک مرکزی، سامانه فهرستی از نزدیک‌ترین شرکت‌های صرافی را نمایش داده و پس از انتخاب یک صرافی توسط متقاضی، اطلاعات درخواست برای صرافی منتخب ارسال می‌شود.

براساس اطلاعیه بازار متشکل ارزی «در حال حاضر فقط امکان درخواست ارز مسافرتی و سایر از طریق این سامانه فراهم شده است، اما در آینده نزدیک با همکاری بانک مرکزی و سایر نهاد‌های مربوط امکان درخواست ارز برای سایر مصارف مطابق مقررات بانک مرکزی جمهوری اسلامی ایران از طریق این سامانه فراهم خواهد شد.»
البته هنوز مشخص نیست این احراز صلاحیت بر چه مبنایی صورت می‌گیرد. باید دید که دولت تا چه حد توان کنترل قیمت ارز در بازار را دارد. هرچه هست افزایش قیمت دلار مصادف با گرانی کالا‌ها و به ویژه کالا‌های اساسی خواهد بود که از ابتدای دولت ابراهیم رئیسی رشد زیادی را تجربه کرده است.

تغییرات قیمت دلار در دولت ابراهیم رئیسی

یکی از شعار‌های انتخاباتی ابراهیم رئیسی کنترل قیمت دلار بود. این در حالی است که از ابتدای دولت سیزدهم که دلار را با قیمت ۲۵ هزار تومان تحویل گرفت تا الان که به مرز ۳۶ هزار تومان رسیده است، بیش از ۱۰ هزار تومان افزایش را نشان می‌دهد. در واقع از ابتدای دولت رئیسی دلار رشد ۴۰ درصدی را تجربه کرده است. این به معنای رشد چند برابری در کالا‌های اساسی و مورد نیاز جامعه نیز هست که برخلاف شعار ابراهیم رئیسی یعنی توجه به محرومان بوده است.

جالب اینجاست که با وجود اینکه دولت‌های احمدی‌نژاد و روحانی نیز به تورم ارزی دامن‌زده بودند، اما هیچ‌کدام در یک سال ابتدای دولت به چنین رکوردی نرسیده بودند. در واقع اصولگرایان که غالباً با بی‌توجهی به آزادی‌های سیاسی و اجتماعی به قدرت می‌رسند، از تنها شعار مهم خود که بهبود معیشت جامعه بود، نیز بازماندند.

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